Donald Trump Suffers Blow Among Hispanics in Two Swing States

Donald Trump has taken a significant hit among Hispanic voters in two key swing states, according to polling shared with Newsweek.
The research, conducted by TelevisaUnivision between September 12 and 19, shows Republican candidate Trump’s support among Hispanic voters in Arizona and Georgia has declined, while support for Vice President Kamala Harris has grown in both states.
Harris is holding a 34-point lead over Trump among Hispanic voters in Arizona, where these voters make up 25 percent of the electorate, according to the poll. Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
The data shows 52 percent of Hispanic voters said they would “definitely” vote for Harris, up from 43 percent in August, while only 18 percent expressed the same commitment to Trump, a drop from 25 percent in August.
Meanwhile, the poll reveals that 29 percent of Hispanic voters are still up for grabs in Arizona, with 15 percent leaning toward “probably” voting for Harris, and 11 percent saying the same for Trump.
In addition, 35 percent of Hispanic voters remain undecided about whether the candidate they are supporting is the right choice.
In Georgia, which has a smaller population of eligible Hispanic voters, Harris’ lead over Trump among Latinos is less significant. Nonetheless, she still leads Trump by 7 points.
The poll shows that 44 percent of Hispanic voters said they would “definitely” vote for Harris, up from 38 percent in July; only 22 percent expressed the same commitment to Trump, who has seen his support among Hispanics grow by 1 point in Georgia since July.
Georgia also has a larger number of Hispanic voters still undecided, with 16 percent leaning toward “probably” voting for Harris, and 12 percent saying the same for Trump. Some 38 percent of Hispanic voters also remain unsure about whether the candidate they are supporting is the right choice.
“We’re seeing large percentages of Hispanic voters who are still uncertain about their vote-even this close to election day- who claim that they still need information about candidates, parties, and their positions on issues in order to make an informed decision,” Kathy Whitlock, vice president of Strategy and Insights at TelevisaUnivision, told Newsweek.
“Campaigns need to do more to engage these voters with messaging that addresses the issues that matter to them, and, most importantly, they should do that in Spanish.”
However, neither of the presidential candidates speaks Spanish.
The polling shows that the cost of living, inflation and the economy and jobs are the most important issues to Hispanic voters in both states—topics that the Harris campaign has focused on.
For Trump’s campaign, the economy has taken a back seat in favor of focusing on immigration and crime.
Border security and immigration is the most important issue for less than half of Hispanic voters in both states, the polling shows, while crime and public safety is the most important issue for 51 percent in Arizona and 55 percent in Georgia.
Although Harris holds an advantage in both states, the poll suggests her lead may not be as secure as it appears.
Voters for the former President display greater enthusiasm, with 80 percent in Arizona and 83 percent in Georgia saying their vote is more in support of Trump than in opposition to Harris. In contrast, 74 percent of Hispanic voters backing the vice president said their vote is more in favor of her than against the Republican in both states.
The poll surveyed 685 likely Hispanic voters in Arizona and 348 in Georgia and had a margin of error of 3.8 percent in Arizona and 5.4 percent in Georgia.
While polls have shown that Harris has a comfortable lead over Trump among Hispanic voters, some have indicated that his support among the demographic is growing.
The most-recent ActiVote poll, from September 25, suggested Trump could see a substantial increase in Hispanic support, with 49 percent of Latino voters polled saying they would vote for the Republican, compared to 51 percent for the vice president. That is down from a 60/40 gap between Harris and Trump among Hispanic voters in ActiVote’s poll from the beginning of September.
In 2020, 38 percent of Latinos supported Trump, up from 28 percent in 2016, according to the Pew Research Center think tank, while 59 percent supported President Joe Biden.
Statewide polls in Arizona have also shown a similar pattern, with the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted between September 17 and 21 showing that Trump had support from 41 percent of Hispanic voters in Arizona, compared to the vice president’s 49 percent.
Meanwhile, a Marist poll conducted between September 19 and 24 showed Donald Trump with a narrow 1-point lead over Harris among likely voters in Arizona, holding 50 percent to her 49 percent. In 2020, around 33 percent of Latino voters voted for Trump in Arizona, up from 30 percent in 2016, according to the Americas Society/Council of the Americas.
However, results from Georgia have shown that Trump’s vote share among Hispanics has largely stayed at around the 41 percent mark he gained in 2020. For example, an ActiVote poll from September 10 showed 40 percent of Hispanic voters in Georgia plan to vote for Trump, while 58 percent said the same about the Democrat.
Overall, polls show that Trump has a small lead over Harris in both Georgia and Arizona.
As of Friday morning, FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker and pollster Nate Silver’s tracker show the former president is leading Harris by 1 point in Arizona and Georgia.
Meanwhile, a research released last week by The New York Times and Siena College found that Trump had a lead of 4 to 5 points in Arizona and Georgia.
In Arizona, which flipped blue in 2020, the former president was 5 points ahead of Harris, on 50 percent to her 45 percent.
A Times/Siena poll in August found the vice president leading by 4 percentage points in the Grand Canyon state.
In Georgia, another state that Biden flipped blue by a narrow margin in 2020, Trump had a lead of 4 points, with 49 percent of the vote to Harris’s 45 percent.
The poll surveyed 116,000 voters and had a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.